A Machine Learning Predictive Analysis on the Educational Out-migration from the Northeast India

Abstract

This study adopts a machine learning-based predictive analysis to forecast the trend of educational out-migration from the Northeast region of India during 2011–2031. Using Census of India migration data (1981–2011) as the data source, the research employs Linear, Quadratic, Exponential and ARIMA statistical models. Due to the delay of census exercise post 2011, there is an evident gap of recent migration trends in India which needs to be fulfilled either by periodical surveys or interpolation methods. This study is an attempt to fill up this gap of recent data in respect of educational migration from the Northeast region, which has already revealed prevalence of high intensity of educational out-migration stream. Based on the analysis, it is predicted that the volume of this migration stream shall continue to increase with declining intensity. The findings highlight critical policy implications for addressing educational infrastructure gaps within the region and managing migration-driven pressures in major urban educational hubs.