Future Population Scenario In India And China – An Econometric Approach

Abstract

A population model is a type of mathematical model that is applied to the study of population dynamics. Models allow a better understanding of how complex interactions and processes work. Modeling of dynamic interactions in nature can provide a manageable way of understanding how numbers change over time or in relation to each other. Many, if not all, of Earth’s processes affect human life. The Earth’s processes are greatly stochastic and seem chaotic to the naked eye. However, a plethora of patterns can be noticed and are brought forth by using population modeling as a tool. There are various methods to develop a population model. A simple exponential model gives sufficient approximation in estimation of population but does not defines a saturation point. Hence the population estimated increases exponentially without any upper limit giving an unrealistic figure for longer time period. This is because it does not considers the environmental factors and hence suitable for very short period of time. Logistic model tells that the population growth rate decreases as the population reaches the carrying capacity or saturation point of the environment.