The Role of NDA Governments in Shaping India-Nepal Strategic Relations in the 21st Century

Abstract

India and Nepal, bound by deep historical, cultural, and geographical ties, have witnessed significant shifts in their bilateral relationship in the 21st century, particularly under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governments led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The paper explores how the NDA’s “Neighborhood First” policy and Modi’s diplomatic outreach initially fostered renewed cooperation, people-to-people connections, and economic engagement, marked by high-profile visits and promises of non-interference in Nepal’s sovereign affairs. However, the relationship has also faced acute challenges, including border disputes, perceptions of Indian interference, and the 2015 economic blockade, which fueled anti-India sentiment and strained diplomatic ties. The rise of China’s influence in Nepal through investments and the Belt and Road Initiative has further complicated the strategic calculus, challenging India’s traditional role in Nepal’s domestic and foreign policy. The paper analyzes the evolving dynamics, the impact of external actors, and the persistent trust deficit, concluding that a comprehensive, cooperative approach—anchored in mutual respect and regular dialogue—is essential for maintaining stability and advancing strategic interests in the region. The study underscores the need for India to recalibrate its strategy to address Nepal’s aspirations and external pressures in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.