Migration Trends and Demographic Transformations in the Indo-Bangladesh Border Districts of West Bengal: A Spatio-Temporal Perspective

Abstract

Cross-border migration is a critical demographic phenomenon with profound socioeconomic and geopolitical implications, particularly in regions with porous borders and historical migration corridors. The Indo-Bangladesh border exemplifies such dynamics, where migration patterns have significantly shaped population structures over the past few decades. This study employs a quantitative approach to examine the trends and demographic impacts of cross-border migration from Bangladesh to the border districts of West Bengal over a six-decade period (1951–2011). Utilising a mixed-methods data framework, the research integrates primary data from a structured household survey of 428 respondents across selected districts with secondary data from the Census of India reports. Key analytical dimensions include the volume and growth rate of Bangladeshi migrants, overall population dynamics, and the relationship between migration trends and population growth. Methodologically, the study applies percentage analysis, annual growth rate, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient to assess temporal variations and associations. The findings indicate a significant surge in migration between 1951 and 1981, followed by a pronounced decline in subsequent decades. Furthermore, the proportion of immigrants relative to the total population has exhibited a substantial reduction since 1991. Correlation analysis reveals a statistically significant positive association between migration and population growth during 1951–1981, transitioning to a negative correlation in the 1991–2011 period. These results highlight the evolving nature of cross-border migration and its critical demographic implications for the Indo-Bangladesh border region, offering insights for policy and future research on migration-driven population dynamics.