Meta-Analysis Of School Dropout Intervention Effectiveness: Rural Versus Urban Schools In India

Abstract

Background: School dropout continues to pose a serious challenge to human capital formation in India, with marked and persistent differences between rural and urban regions. Despite the widespread implementation of policy interventions aimed at improving student retention, existing evidence on how these measures perform across different geographic contexts remains scattered and inconclusive.

Objective: This study seeks to bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive meta-analysis of 208 empirical studies published between 2000 and 2023. It systematically compares the effectiveness of key school dropout interventions mid-day meal schemes, scholarships and cash transfer programs, and transport subsidies, across rural and urban schools in India.

Methodology: A mixed synthesis approach was adopted, integrating narrative review techniques with quantitative pooling of effect sizes. The analysis disaggregates outcomes by location, gender, and intervention type, allowing for a nuanced understanding of context-specific patterns of effectiveness.

Results: The findings show that dropout reduction interventions tend to generate stronger retention outcomes in rural areas, with an average gain of 11.2 percentage points, compared to 8.6 percentage points in urban settings. Mid-day meal programs demonstrate the most pronounced rural–urban contrast, yielding retention gains of 12.5 percentage points in rural districts versus 6.8 points in urban areas, with particularly strong effects among rural girls. Scholarship and cash transfer interventions display relatively similar effectiveness across both contexts, averaging around 9 percentage points. Transport subsidies produce comparatively modest impacts. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, mid-day meal programs emerge as the most efficient intervention in rural areas (USD 40–60 per student retained), while scholarships offer better value in urban contexts.

Conclusion: The analysis underscores that the effectiveness of dropout interventions is closely shaped by local constraints. In rural areas, nutritional deficits and long travel distances remain dominant drivers of dropout, whereas in urban contexts, informal labour participation and safety concerns play a more significant role. These findings indicate that uniform, nationwide policy approaches are unlikely to be optimal. Instead, education policy should emphasize geographically targeted and bundled intervention strategies that respond to the specific socio-economic barriers faced by different districts.