Enrolment Projection In The Light Of NEP 2020: Statistical Projection For Policy Implications

Abstract

Projection of unforeseen figures is a critical task in various sectors such as the educational sector, finance, or business planning anticipating potential parameters and choosing an appropriate mathematical model is crucial for achieving maximum accuracy. Although no any prediction algorithms can estimate the future perfectly, certain approaches can improve accuracy and reduce biases in projection. This article provides the estimates and trend of enrolment figures with a 95 per cent confidence interval in India categorized based on gender and social groups until 2036 in the context of the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, and Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG-4). Estimation of school enrolment is a challenging yet captivating task, understanding data and considering the algorithm's complexity is a cornerstone for an effective prediction. Antecedent to choosing a projection algorithm, it is central to identifying features that most influence the outcome. In case of estimating enrolment indicators such as dropout rate, promotion rate, repetition rate and apparent intake rate can significantly affect the enrolment estimates. Enrolment estimation is accomplished using the flow model i.e., the Reconstructive cohort method, one of the crucial educational flow models. Projection of the parameters involved in the flow model is projected using complex machine learning and time series algorithms. Double exponential smoothing and regression algorithms were used after the fulfillment of all the assumptions. Enrolment being a function of population, growth in enrolment is directly proportional to the growth in the child population of that respective age or age group. As the child population is declining, it is significantly impacting enrolment figures in educational institutions. Here, enrolment projection during 2022-2036 has been discussed. The projection reveals that during the period 2022-2036, there will be an estimated decline of 12.7 per cent in enrolment at the primary stage. The middle stage is anticipated to experience a decrease of 9.1 per cent overall. Similarly, the trend continues for the secondary stage, with a 1.3 per cent decline in overall enrolment. The foundational stage (Grades I and II) is expected to undergo a decline of 11.4 per cent in overall enrolment. A similar trend is anticipated for the Preparatory stage (Grades III, IV, and V), with an estimated decline of 12.7 per cent in overall enrolment.