Factional politics in Iran (2005-2023): A study of conflicts, clientelism and influence

Abstract

This study investigates the factional conflicts in Iranian politics from 2005 to 2023, exploring their influence on governance, political evolution, and foreign relations, especially with India. Iran's political system uniquely integrates theocratic and democratic elements, with significant power concentrated in the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council. The paper identifies three primary factions: conservatives, reformists, and moderates, each representing distinct ideological and policy preferences. Conservatives uphold revolutionary principles and central authority, reformists advocate for civil liberties and openness, while moderates seek pragmatic governance balancing Islamic principles with socio-economic needs. Key presidencies reflect these dynamics: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–2013) represented conservative populism, marked by economic polarization and international sanctions. Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021), a moderate, focused on the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) and economic reforms but faced resistance from conservatives. Ebrahim Raisi (2021–present), aligned with ultra-conservatives, emphasizes strict governance and geopolitical shifts like "de-dollarization." The paper highlights factionalism's fluidity, where political allegiances shift over time, creating a dynamic interplay of power and dissent. Clientelism is prevalent, driven by Iran's rentier economy, fostering patronage networks that consolidate political influence. Additionally, the study underscores the role of these factions in shaping Iran's strategic decisions and its implications for regional stability. This research stresses the importance of understanding Iran's internal political conflicts beyond Western-centric narratives, focusing on its distinct political and institutional framework. By analyzing factional struggles and their socio-political impacts, the paper offers insights into Iran's unique positioning in global politics and its evolving ties with India.