The Impact of Digital Trade on Sustainable Development: An Empirical Study of BRICS Countries During the Period (2010–2023)

Abstract

This study seeks to rigorously examine the impact of digital trade on sustainable development across the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) over the period 2010–2023. It specifically addresses the three core dimensions of sustainability: the economic (Gross Domestic Product), the social (Human Development Index), and the environmental (carbon dioxide emissions). The analysis is conducted using panel data econometric techniques, including fixed effects, random effects, and pooled regression models.

The empirical findings indicate that digital service exports have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth (coefficient: 0.087) and contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions (coefficient: -0.0049). However, they exhibit a negative impact on human development (coefficient: -0.0028), likely due to the concentration of resources in technology-intensive sectors at the expense of broader social investments. In contrast, digital service imports are found to enhance human development (coefficient: 0.0026) but simultaneously lead to an increase in emissions (coefficient: 0.0027), reflecting the energy-intensive nature of the supporting infrastructure. Moreover, the results underscore the pivotal role of technological readiness (coefficient: 0.455) as a determinant of improved quality of life.

The study underscores the importance of adopting integrated policy frameworks that can maximize the developmental benefits of digital trade while mitigating its environmental and social trade-offs.